I was recently asked of my opinion on how I could possibly come up with a Papa Bear Projection Chart where the correction period takes over a year long – one that takes us well into next year, and into and over the next Bitcoin halving date of May 2020. I figured it would be easier to simply print a chart for reference.
A picture speaks a thousand words. Here’s a history of Bitcoin halvings – all two of them.
A. The first and the only point pertinent to the question that was asked of me is point A – the second BTC Bitcoin dropped ~40% immediately BEFORE, DURING and AFTER it.
Need I say more? The rest of this post is for educational purposes.
B. Here, the price dropped by 75% six months after the first halving (that should have said first on the chart).
C. A drop in price of approximately 80% in its early days (11.85 to 2.22) and one year before the first halving.
D. A correction period of over 1.5 years where the price dropped by about 90% between the two halvings (1163 to 152).
E. The price rose by 100% one year after the second halving. As an analogy, in today’s terms, it would rise from 3000 to 6000 or 8000 to 16000 one year after the next halving (I’m not saying this is what will happen).
F. A correction period of over a year where the price dropped by ~85% (~20000 to ~3000).
Bitcoin has had more elongated correction periods and FAR MORE drops in price than it has had halvings. A third correction period of over a year or another drop in price is neither an abnormality nor a deviation from the “norm”.
I guess the only reason I can think of as to why people think my projection seems so absolutely absurd is because they be dreamin’ of owning Maseratis and Mansions and they be wantin’ it now.
Do I think halvings have anything to do with the price of Bitcoin (all one of the two halvings which had no significant correlation, where the price did not increase immediately after the halving and only increased months later in line with the trend it was in prior to the halving)? None whatsoever.
Do I expect the price of Bitcoin to increase in the future? Yes, but only after it corrects.
What is clear from this chart is that BTC, just like any other stock or crypto, goes through cycles.
I can’t predict when the corrections will end but I can forecast where it will likely finish based on its cycle and technical analysis, and that is what I am most concerned with at Purple Crypto Premium.
What goes up must come down.
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Trading View link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lHqSyiQU-Bitcoin-Halving-Demystified/